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Survey reveals industry sentiment on outlook for trading activity, clearing competition and market structure
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Political instability and conflict seen as most important driver for trading activity worldwide
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Industry wary of trend toward vertical integration, positive on growth potential in commodities
WASHINGTON, DC – FIA today released the findings from a survey of brokers, trading firms, exchanges and other participants in the global derivatives markets.
The survey, which was conducted in January by Crisil Coalition Greenwich on behalf of FIA, assessed industry sentiment on the outlook for trading activity at the global level and gathered views on the likely drivers for trading activity going forward.
The survey also assessed industry sentiment on several current issues affecting market structure, including competition among clearinghouses in the US Treasury securities market, the growth of prediction markets, and the trend towards vertical integration.
Outlook for trading activity
One of the key findings was that a majority of the survey respondents expect trading activity to rise in 2025, mainly because of political instability and geopolitical conflict. Although economic fundamentals generally drive derivatives trading, the survey respondents put a higher weight on political instability and geopolitical conflict as driving trading activity going forward.
Looking specifically at the US, the survey respondents flagged the threat of tariffs as the top factor in their outlook for trading activity, followed by the adoption of a more business-friendly approach to regulation.
“It’s clear that economics is taking a back seat to politics in terms of what will drive the derivatives markets in the next few years,” said Walt Lukken, FIA’s president and chief executive officer. “The political outcomes from last year’s elections, combined with the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, are creating a lot of uncertainty in the markets. We will likely see an increase in the trading of derivatives as market participants balance their risks and adjust their expectations.”
The survey also asked respondents for their views on which asset class had the greatest potential for growth in 2025 and 2026. Commodities ranked the highest, followed closely by interest rates and credit. In terms of regions, survey respondents ranked India and the Middle East as having the highest growth potential outside the core markets of Europe and North America.
Market structure and technology
The central clearing mandate for the US Treasury securities market led the market structure issues going into 2025. Although not directly related to derivatives trading or clearing, many firms involved in derivatives markets will be subject to this mandate. And many of the firms that provide clearing services for derivatives are weighing the business opportunities created by the mandate.
The survey asked respondents to draw on their knowledge of clearing to answer two questions related to the Treasury clearing mandate. First, the survey asked for feedback on the pros and cons of having more than one clearinghouse for cash Treasuries and repos. More than half of the survey respondents have a positive view on competition among clearinghouses, and less than 10% take the opposing view. Second, the survey asked which attributes are the most important in determining which clearinghouse to use. The three top choices were cross-margining, margin methodology and balance sheet treatment.
The survey also asked for feedback on a potential move towards vertical integration in the derivatives markets. Historically, executing brokers and clearing brokers have operated independently of exchanges and clearinghouses, but in recent years a few companies have combined these functions within a single ownership structure. Roughly half of the survey respondents viewed it negatively for the industry, one quarter positively and the balance held a neutral opinion.
Another recent trend has been the growth of prediction markets in the US. The survey asked for feedback on how the growth of these markets might affect conventional futures markets. Only one third of the survey respondents think the growth of prediction markets will benefit the futures industry. The rest dismissed these markets as either irrelevant or pernicious.
Turning to technological trends, the survey asked respondents to rank several emerging technologies in terms of their potential impact on the trading and clearing workflow. The most noteworthy finding was that attitudes towards generative AI have changed. A year ago, when FIA conducted a similar survey, GenAI ranked third after the development and adoption of operational standards and the application of tokenisation in collateral management. This year, GenAI ranked first, with tokenisation a close second.
Survey methodology
The survey was conducted during the month of January and the first week of February in partnership with Crisil Coalition Greenwich, a consulting firm focused on the financial services industry. The survey was conducted on a confidential basis, and the names and company affiliations of the respondents were not disclosed. More than 260 people responded, with 56% in North America, 27% in Europe, and 17% in the rest of the world. Forty one percent of the respondents work at clearing firms, executing brokers and other intermediaries. Twenty one percent work at asset managers, hedge funds or principal trading firms, and the remainder work in other segments of the industry, primarily infrastructure providers such as exchanges and service providers such as technology vendors.
Read an analysis of the findings on FIA's MarketVoice.
